5 Jan
Andy Rowell posted an interesting commentary yesterday noting that pollsters did not take measure of how many evangelical Christians voted in the Democratic Caucus in Iowa. Of course, we all know this was a major question on the Republican side of things. Now, Rowell’s question is important but a tad premature because the main question pollsters are trying to answer this early in the race is, “Which demographic groups are pushing candidates to caucus victory?” It’s a pretty safe bet (although less safe than in the past) that evangelical Christians as a voting bloc didn’t make a whopping difference in the Iowa Democratic Caucus. In fact, we know who made the big difference and why there was a nine-point spread between Obama and Clinton. Quite simply, the answer is the youth vote. Voters between the age of 18 and 30 supported Obama 5 to 1 over Clinton. And the support is even more striking when you consider the 18 to 24 vote. This, of course, would be meaningless except for the fact that 18 to 30 year olds actually showed up to caucus in huge numbers. This is rather astounding. We’re saying that young people didn’t just show up to vote, they showed up to caucus — a time and energy commitment way beyond marking a ballot sheet.
This is significant, and let me say now, that if this kind of trend continues in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and beyond we could be looking at a resurgence in the power of young people in this country that we haven’t seen in a long, long time. The simple fact is Obama won big because young people showed up to vote. And Clinton took notice and began aggressively courting the youth vote the morning following the election. Unfortunately, it’s too late. And as Dick Morris observed on Fox News, “The Clintons have become old before our eyes. They are, as if by magic, part of the past.”
Young people just became a significant force in this election. And it will be interesting to see how this generation either finds empowerment or alienation as the race moves along.
But there was another group that was significant in Iowa. Evangelical Christians. Let’s put this straight, Huckabee didn’t win Iowa. Only 1 in 7 Iowa Republican Caucus goers cast their vote for Huckabee — well, only 1 in 7, that is, if you take conservative Christians out of the mix. Huckabee didn’t win Iowa, he won evangelical Christians in Iowa, a group that also showed up in huge numbers. In fact, if you remove the born-again vote, you end up with Huckabee a distant third in the Iowa caucus.
Now, it’s too early (for me at least) to predict that we’re coming down to a Huckabee vs. Obama election next November. Whether or not that will happen will become clear soon enough. And obviously there are plenty of young people voting for Huckabee, and surely some conservative evangelicals voting for Obama. But what became clear Thursday is that in Iowa, at least, youth and evangelicals are largely lining up on opposite sides of the aisle as significant forces in the 2008 election.
And that’s a trend those of us interested in the relationship between youth and the church would do well to keep an eye on.
One Response for "Evangelicals vs. Youth in Election 08?"
barack and the youth vote reminds me a lot of what clinton did his first time around with going on arsenio and playing the sax. and then his constant appearances on mtv’s rock the vote. the youth demographic put him to office the first time around. and i’ve been saying that was what was going to happen to barack this time around. that and he has such a large number of people who have made up the financing of his campaign. when you have 2 to 3 times the number of people giving to your campaign (as opposed to lobbyist money like the robotic hillary) that’s going to translate to huge numbers.
i think the fact that so many young people are so energized about politics goes to show you how much we value change and hope. especially when juxtaposed against the last 8 years. i’m 27, so the only two times i voted, bush became president. so it’s no wonder so many people my age were disillusioned with the voting process. it’s never worked for them before.
i think barack is a step in the right direction and at the very least gives us hope that we matter.
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